[Let me preface all of this with the acknowledgment that
I still think Spivack has a chance. Given the very high distrust people have for Bush and republican rubber stampers like Michael Castle, the polls may not tell the whole story. If this turns out to be a low turnout election that leaves the middle-of-the-roaders standing on the sidelines, Spivack could win.] Having said that......no matter what happens on November 7th Castle's cowardly stint as congressman is nearly over.
Based on how fragile and out of it Michael Castle looked at the rotary debate, and given the fact that he is ducking these last debates
, the conventional wisdom is that Castle's health is a very significant issue.
Most people I've spoken too are looking at an "open seat" race either 24 months from now or sooner. If Castle wins on the 7th it is now seems very likely that there will be a special election sometime in the next year to replace him. So the field is wide open and both Republicans and Democrats have people jockeying for position.
On the R side the word is that Rhode Island interloper John Feroce
is making some people uncomfortable with his hypothetical musing. The fact that his entire campaign seemed to be directed to a statewide audience rather that the senate district that he claims to want to represent tends to support this line of thought.
Unless some backroom deal is cut, the Democrats will have a crowded field. With such a weak Republican bench many regard it as a given that whoever wins the Democratic primary for the special election will go on to Washington.
I'll have to check with Celia to see if having every statewide office (other than auditor) in Democratic hands violates some unwritten rule of Delaware poltics. Even if it does, recent events prove that unwritten rules were meant to be broken.