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Tuesday, August 08, 2006 has Lamont at 80% to win

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UPDATE: 5:50 PM Wow. Something happened. Nobody is buying Lieberman for more than 15 or selling Lamont for less than 85.

UPDATE: 5:19 PM Lots of volatility in the market as the evening news reports start to come on-line.

UPDATE: 3:30 PM The "Lieberman Wins" contract just tanked. Back to 20.

I took down the "lifetime" graph and I put up today's trading graph. The traders seem to like Lamont ALOT. "Lamont Wins" contracts have been trading over 74 all day. This chart should refresh throughout the day.

If you are not familiar with these types of "futures markets", think of it this way. Traders are buying a contract called "Lamont Wins" that pays off $1.00 is he wins and $0.00 if he loses. The price of the contract is set by buyers and sellers who think they have some insight into what is going to happen in the "future" hence the name.

The traders weight the relative risks and returns of buying at given levels. So, if the exit polling shows a probable Lamont win, then the contract would be more valuable. At the point af absloute certainty that Lamont will win, the contract would be worth $1.00.

On the other hand, if the exit polling begins to show that Lamont might lose, the price of the contract would go down as traders who bought low try to take out thier profits.

To be clear. This is not to win with 80% of the vote, but a bet on Lamont to win would pay off at 20% (1:5) but a bet on Lieberman to win would pay off at (5:1).
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