Chuck Todd writes... Hotline researchers [...] can't find evidence of any primary night (in a non-redistricting year) producing three incumbent losses. And these losses were across the ideological and geographic spectrum. Each one individually can be explained away (moderate Joe Schwarz only won his first race because the conservative vote was split, not so this year; Cynthia McKinney is, well, Cynthia McKinney; and Joe Lieberman found himself on the wrong end of a divisive issue in the wrong year).
And yet, they all lost to candidates promising to do the same thing: change Washington. Change the spending habits, or change the foreign policy, or simply change personal behavior.
Could 2006 be the "year of the base voter"?
The search for the elusive swing voter has kept the political consulting world in the money for years. And yet, if the primary electorates are allowed to speak, it appears that DINOs(aurs) and RINOs(aurs) are endangered species. Lieberman and Schwarz are both middle-of-the-roaders within their (former) parties. And both lost for being just that: centrists. [Click here to read about Castle crapping his pants due to the Schwarz loss]
...the turnout among the sometimes casual suburban liberal [in the Connecticut primary] should make Democrats happy. If these folks show up in big numbers in the fall, there are at least 10 House seats Democrats will pick up east of the Mississippi. The angry suburbanite is the difference between Democrats winning control of Congress or just coming close.
Now think about this; demographicaly Delaware is one big suburb these days, and Delaware suburbanites have a great deal to be angry about. (See below) That is one energized Spivack base.
At the same time, you have Republican based that is pissed off at Castle (The evangelicas for stem cell, and the fiscal conservatives over his budget busting) and the result is a Spivack upset.
Of course Spivack will still need to stoke the fires and makes sure the ground game is top notch - but the table is set. If Castle is ever going to be dealt an upset, this is the year.