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Thursday, August 10, 2006


Castle is Crapping His Pants: Part II

Chuck Todd writes...

Hotline researchers [...] can't find evidence of any primary night (in a non-redistricting year) producing three incumbent losses. And these losses were across the ideological and geographic spectrum. Each one individually can be explained away (moderate Joe Schwarz only won his first race because the conservative vote was split, not so this year; Cynthia McKinney is, well, Cynthia McKinney; and Joe Lieberman found himself on the wrong end of a divisive issue in the wrong year).

And yet, they all lost to candidates promising to do the same thing: change Washington. Change the spending habits, or change the foreign policy, or simply change personal behavior.

Could 2006 be the "year of the base voter"?

The search for the elusive swing voter has kept the political consulting world in the money for years. And yet, if the primary electorates are allowed to speak, it appears that DINOs(aurs) and RINOs(aurs) are endangered species. Lieberman and Schwarz are both middle-of-the-roaders within their (former) parties. And both lost for being just that: centrists. [Click here to read about Castle crapping his pants due to the Schwarz loss]

...the turnout among the sometimes casual suburban liberal [in the Connecticut primary] should make Democrats happy. If these folks show up in big numbers in the fall, there are at least 10 House seats Democrats will pick up east of the Mississippi. The angry suburbanite is the difference between Democrats winning control of Congress or just coming close.

Now think about this; demographicaly Delaware is one big suburb these days, and Delaware suburbanites have a great deal to be angry about. (See below) That is one energized Spivack base.

At the same time, you have Republican based that is pissed off at Castle (The evangelicas for stem cell, and the fiscal conservatives over his budget busting) and the result is a Spivack upset.

Of course Spivack will still need to stoke the fires and makes sure the ground game is top notch - but the table is set. If Castle is ever going to be dealt an upset, this is the year.

Jason, I'll be honest, I was very hesitant about Spivack and frankly you. I'm still hesitant about you and don't necessarily agree with everything you do...

I'm a Republican - voted for Bush both times. I cringe at having to admit that. The current state of things is just so out of wack, I don't know how Castle can morally justify his support for Bush.

I'm voting for Spivack, because it can't get any worse.
Because it can't get any worse.

Hmmm... not the slogan I would have chosen, but if that's what it takes to bring out the disaffected Republicans - I'll take it.
I heard Spivak on the radio today and it sounds like he's ramped up his ground game bigtime. I'm happy if you guys will vote for Spivak because "it can't get any worse" but I'm voting for Spivak because I like what he stands for.
I'm a Republican - voted for Bush both times. I cringe at having to admit that.

Now that is progress. I'd still encourage you to be hesitant about me though.
Here is the test of Castle's sense of his own vulnerability. Castle's trump card is the checkbook. If he starts radio ads and billboards in the next week or two - he is shitting his pants. If he holds off until after the Dem primary - he is cool as a cucumber.
I like it.

I'll add that to my "If he calls Spivack by name" barometer.
I go to a football game, and you put a link to my blog on Kos?

Come on, man. What did I do to you?
Did you get some trafffic?
Yeah. It looks like this will be my first week with 400 unique visitors and 1000 hits a day. I was lagging until late yesterday.

Should I send Mentos Markos a thank you note?
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