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Friday, March 10, 2006

 

Probability


As much as I’d like elections to be about issues and ideas, I realize that elections are basically numbers games. Knowing that, there are only really two likely outcomes for the Spivack vs. Castle race. Here are the possible outcomes listed in order of likelihood.

1) A sleepy electorate allows Fake Moderate Michael Castle to ride his name recognition and his $1million dollars to (what for Castle is) a photo finish. Castle 53% Spivack 47%
I give this outcome about a 60% probability.

2) Dennis Spivack fires up the Democratic base and Delaware’s sane Republicans decide to stay home in droves in order to protest the Castle’s complicity in the absurd and destructive Bush presidency, while Delaware’s insane republicans decide to stay home in droves in order to protest the Castle’s complicity in killing snow-flake babies. Spivack 51% Castle 49%
I give this outcome about a 35% probability.

So, there is about a 95% chance that one of the two outcomes mentioned above are going to happen. However, that means there is a 5% chance of some other outcome. See the comments section for my take on the other possible outcomes - and feel free to add your own.

Comments:
3) The wheels fall off Fake Moderate Michael Castle’s campaign after he passes out (twice) on the campaign trail.
Spivack 55% Castle 45%
I give this outcome about a 3% probability.

4) A weary 67 year old Castle decides to retire.
Spivack 60% Protrack 40%
I give this outcome about a 1% probability.

5) Spivack decides to “pander to the center” and fails to fire up the Democratic base.
Castle 65% Spivack 32% Berg 3%
I give this outcome about a 1% probability.
 
6) Spivack realizes going negative against Castle will backfire so he mounts an innocuous "nice-guy" campaign. During the televised debates, viewers fall asleep and fail to wake up in time for the election.
 
7) Democrats like George Bunting endorse Castle, Spivack makes quotes about "taking back the legislature" like in today's Cape Gazette which confuse voters as to what office he is running for, and it goes just about as everyone thinks it will. Castle 57, Spivack 42, Berg 1.
 
That 1 for Berg is just the number "1," right? not actually a percentage. :-P
 
No, I think he gets the extreme anti-war vote, which could amount to about 1%.
 
Friday's retirement announcement by Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly, just hours before the filing deadline for the June 6 primary in California's 24th District, was a surprise to just about everybody -- including, apparently, the people who work for him. Staffers at his district office in Simi Valley said they were unaware of the congressman's decision until they received his press release.

Shock quickly turned to political chaos, as it was immediately unclear how Gallegly could be replaced on the Republican primary ballot, and by whom.


This is why I included the "Castle Retires" option.

Stuff happens...and based on his votes you can make an argument that Castle is aged to the point enfeeblement.
 
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