As much as I’d like elections to be about issues and ideas, I realize that elections are basically numbers games. Knowing that, there are only really two likely outcomes for the Spivack vs. Castle
race. Here are the possible outcomes listed in order of likelihood.
1) A sleepy electorate allows Fake Moderate Michael Castle
to ride his name recognition and his $1million dollars to (what for Castle is) a photo finish. Castle 53% Spivack 47% I give this outcome about a 60% probability.
2) Dennis Spivack
fires up the Democratic base and Delaware’s sane Republicans decide to stay home in droves in order to protest the Castle’s complicity in the absurd and destructive Bush presidency, while Delaware’s insane republicans decide to stay home in droves in order to protest the Castle’s complicity in killing snow-flake babies. Spivack 51% Castle 49% I give this outcome about a 35% probability.So, there is about a 95% chance that one of the two outcomes mentioned above are going to happen. However, that means there is a 5% chance of some other outcome. See the comments section for my take on the other possible outcomes - and feel free to add your own.