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Monday, January 23, 2006


Making The Most out of GOP Disarray

A Delawareliberal reader muses, "So maybe it's time to pick off a few GOP House members? Who's vulnerable?

To which I reply,

4th RD
Dipinto (R) represents a district that went 61% for Kerry.

7th RD
Smith (R) represents a district that went 55% for Kerry.

10th RD
Valihura (R) represents a district in a district that went 56% for Kerry.

11th RD* (see below)
Lavelle (R) ran unopposed in a district that went 54% for Kerry.

18th RD
Spence (R) ran unopposed in a district that went 62% for Kerry.

21st RD
Maier (R) represents a district in a district that went 54% for Kerry.

24th RD
Oberle (R) ran unopposed in a district that went 64% for Kerry.

25st RD
Ulbrich (R) represents a district that went 60% for Kerry.

27th RD
Lofink (R) ran unopposed in a district that went 56% for Kerry.

As Dt points out below, it is a stretch to think of these guys as "vunerable". But you have to wonder about a district that votes for Kerry in a landslide, but returns an R to Dover year after year.
Can't the Dems manage to oppose Roger Roy this year? Isn't he chronically involved in some kind of double-dipping thing?
I only included RD's that voted for Kerry in a big way. On the map, the 20th look pretty solidly R. But If anybody has any news about Roger Roy I'd be more than happy to talk this race up as a possible take away.
The only potentially vulnerable seats are Valihura and Ulbrich. Both polled under 60% last time in a D district, and neither have a leadership post or JFC/Bond Bill seat to boast. Valihura especially, if the mobile home owners take it to him for their perceived slights. Other than those two, the R's are safe.

I, for one, wouldn't mind seeing Spence, Smith, Oberle, Lofink and Roy go, but only if they were replaced by R's.
Delathought- You have no idea what you are talking about - Ulbrich is on the JFC. And anyone Republican can do well in Brookside and other working class areas of the 25th RD over a union democrat isn't going to have problems at the ballot box any time soon.
Sorry, oversight on my part. I was making the point about Valihura, and I threw Ulbrich in without thinking about her committees because she fit Jason's numbers. Anyway, it just makes the point stronger that there really won't be any Democratic gains this year.

And as Jason states in the first post of this thread, I don't think any of these R's are vulnerable. What I'm saying is the Dems would have to get seats like these in order for there to be a change in control of the House.

Simmer down. I'm on your side.
In the same way that Republicans say democrats suffer from "pre 9/11" thinking, I think you may find you are suffering from "pre George Bush" thinking.

More democratic challengers means the R's will have to spread money around in ways they never had to before. Because of republican mismangement in Washington, party affiliation will play a bigger role in these races then in the past.

I'm not predicting control this year, but after November ask me about 2008.
It's also fun to watch inexperienced R candidates running campaigns with the usual national GOP themes. Doesn't work in Delaware.
People in Delaware do not align state representatives with the national party. People like Oberle & Lofink are Democrats on paper, just like Thurman Adams is a Republican on paper. Some people in local elections will always vote party, but no one's going to say "I hate George Bush, so I'm going to vote against Joe DiPinto."

I'm not predicting control this year, but after November ask me about 2008.

It will be worse for Democrats in 2008. The colossal failure that is the Minner administration will hurt the Democrats much more than the Bush administration ever will help. Plus, the focus will be on the President, the Governor, the US Senate and US House races, and it's tougher to get momentum to upset an incumbent when all the attention is on the statewide races. As long as the upstate incumbents run again, it will be difficult to beat them.
For the record, I hate George Bush, so I'm going to vote against Joe DiPinto.
Great educated basis for your vote. If you do live in the 4th district, you should recognize the unique advantage you have in having the chairman of the JFC as your Rep. He can direct resources to address the needs of your community much more easily than a freshman Rep in the minority party.

But, hey, don't vote for him. I'm sure George W. will feel the pain from that earth-shattering decision.
I used to split my ticket, until the Clinton Whitewater/impeachment witchhunt. Then I started voting straight Democrat. It's still not time to start splitting my ticket again.
Anon's vote may not be "earth-shattering" but as Robert Kennedy said:

"Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current that can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance."

Your electoral calculus regarding JFC and getting local kickbacks assumes that everyone puts their parochial needs ahead of the needs of society. You should have gathered by now that not everyone is a republican.
Okay, what needs of society will be better served by Joe DiPinto's opponent? The House Republicans created the smoking ban, introduced and passed the sexual orientation civil rights bill, and cut the gross-receipts tax. They are the impetus and the only sign of leadership in Dover. The Governor is on vacation until 1/09, and the Senate Democrats are too busy tossing bills in drawers and preventing things from happening to show any leadership. So, tell me the benefits of electing a Democrat to the 4th. We're not talking about Congress and earmarks. We're talking about roads and schools and Joe DiPinto's ability to react to the immediate needs of community organizations. As chair of the JFC, he is able to affect the needs of society in the whole state better than any opponent would.
DiPinto thinks it would be just ducky to have a "video lottery" casino on the Wilmington waterfront. The hated Governor had the smoking ban passed, and the gross-receipts tax cut was pure corporate welfare. I'll have to get back to you on the sexual orientation civil rights bill.

I guess the PA voters who thought that Arlen Specter (with his seniority) would be better for them than a mere freshman are feeling like a bunch of suckers right now.
Many people think adding 600 jobs and millions of dollars in revenue to a city that desperately needs it by doing something that is legal and encouraged just a few miles down the road is a good idea.

The Governor signed the smoking ban. Other than that she had nothing to do with it. The one thing she gets credit for doing in her worthless administration she really had nothing to do with.

The gross-receipts tax cut helps small businesses way more than big ones. There is an argument that it leaves the state short on money, but corporate welfare? Come on.

You have more, I assume.

Not unless you are talking about ad hominem attacks. I knew that last one was not going to fly.
I pray that Valihura gets dumped. I'd spend the rest of my life thanking God if Thurman Adams got dumped.
So the summertime A/C bills will be rolling in around election season... Honestly, I wasn't paying attention back then and I don't remember -What was the roll call on the power deregulation? Who supported it? Who will the voters blame?

"Gov. Ruth Ann Minner set up a committee of her Cabinet members to look at legislative changes that could reduce the impact of rate hikes, Minner spokeswoman Kate Bailey said. That committee will report back to Minner in March."

Thank God, I was afraid she was doing nothing.
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