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CHECK US OUT AT: http://delawareliberal.wordpress.com/Saturday, November 12, 2005
Newsweek Confirms Huge Generic Lead For Dems - Castle in Trouble ?
I like MyDD.com
"...Truly amazing numbers:
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 10-11, 2005. N=884 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
"To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?"
Republican (36)
Democratic (53)
Other/Unsure (11)
The lead probably isn't quite this high, but it is clearly enormous (NBC shows an 11 point Dem lead). Bush's sustained period of incredibly low poll numbers provides a realignment opportunity for Democrats. If Dems won the popular vote for Congress by 17 points, they would take about 275 seats in the House (or more). This also reveals how much of a lie the "voters moving away from Republicans, but not toward Dems" talking point is. This is the largest lead held by one party over another in the generic ballot in a decade. If that isn't voters moving toward Democrats, nothing is. The Republican coalition is in utter peril.
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Does this translate into bad news for Castle? Maybe. If the Dems field a remotely credible candidate, I'd say yes. Even my father, who is a typical DelDem ticket splitter when it comes to Castle, is ready to vote the Democratic ticket.
"...Truly amazing numbers:
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 10-11, 2005. N=884 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
"To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?"
Republican (36)
Democratic (53)
Other/Unsure (11)
The lead probably isn't quite this high, but it is clearly enormous (NBC shows an 11 point Dem lead). Bush's sustained period of incredibly low poll numbers provides a realignment opportunity for Democrats. If Dems won the popular vote for Congress by 17 points, they would take about 275 seats in the House (or more). This also reveals how much of a lie the "voters moving away from Republicans, but not toward Dems" talking point is. This is the largest lead held by one party over another in the generic ballot in a decade. If that isn't voters moving toward Democrats, nothing is. The Republican coalition is in utter peril.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Does this translate into bad news for Castle? Maybe. If the Dems field a remotely credible candidate, I'd say yes. Even my father, who is a typical DelDem ticket splitter when it comes to Castle, is ready to vote the Democratic ticket.
posted by jason # 3:44 PM 
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First, great blog. I found you through DelawareWatch and am looking forward to reading more.
As for the poll, I agree that things look good for Dems at the moment. What we need to do is take these great numbers and translate them into gains on Election Day in 2006. One thing we will need is a strong Congressional leader (think Newt Gingrich, but instead of being far left, the person would have to be more moderate - someone from the DLC).
As for Congressman Castle, he could be defeated, but as you say that would require the party to field a credible candidate. In my opinion, there is no credible Dem who will take on Castle because incumbency is too powerful.
Good luck with the blog.
As for the poll, I agree that things look good for Dems at the moment. What we need to do is take these great numbers and translate them into gains on Election Day in 2006. One thing we will need is a strong Congressional leader (think Newt Gingrich, but instead of being far left, the person would have to be more moderate - someone from the DLC).
As for Congressman Castle, he could be defeated, but as you say that would require the party to field a credible candidate. In my opinion, there is no credible Dem who will take on Castle because incumbency is too powerful.
Good luck with the blog.
"(think Newt Gingrich, but instead of being far left, the person would have to be more moderate - someone from the DLC)."
Why is it that Republicans can get away with being wildly out of the mainstream, but a Democrat has to be "moderate" to win an election?
I see this as a kind of Democratic "battered wife syndrome" that we need to get over to win elections.
Why is it that Republicans can get away with being wildly out of the mainstream, but a Democrat has to be "moderate" to win an election?
I see this as a kind of Democratic "battered wife syndrome" that we need to get over to win elections.
Here's the thing about Castle which makes me think that the poll results don't apply to him: Castle has explicitly distanced himself from the right wing of the Repub Party, acknowledging openly his disagreements w/ Bush & the House leadership. Castle can say accurately that he is independent when he feels it is necessary.
I believe the Dems would have to come up w/ a big name to defeat Castle. I don't know who it would be. But I do think that it's possible to shrink Castle's margin of victory substantially. That would have the effect of making him act even more independently in the future.
Also, here's a longshot possibility. About 2 years ago there was a widely circulated rumor that Castle intended to quit the Repubs and join the Dems. He was that disgusted w/ the Repubs. I don’t know what happened or if it was a DE legend, but I got it from someone who claimed to know it for sure and was mystified when it didn’t happen.
I believe Castle is more liberal than either Biden or Carper. I sometimes wonder if someday Castle will switch teams.
I believe the Dems would have to come up w/ a big name to defeat Castle. I don't know who it would be. But I do think that it's possible to shrink Castle's margin of victory substantially. That would have the effect of making him act even more independently in the future.
Also, here's a longshot possibility. About 2 years ago there was a widely circulated rumor that Castle intended to quit the Repubs and join the Dems. He was that disgusted w/ the Repubs. I don’t know what happened or if it was a DE legend, but I got it from someone who claimed to know it for sure and was mystified when it didn’t happen.
I believe Castle is more liberal than either Biden or Carper. I sometimes wonder if someday Castle will switch teams.
"I believe the Dems would have to come up w/ a big name to defeat Castle. I don't know who it would be. But I do think that it's possible to shrink Castle's margin of victory substantially. That would have the effect of making him act even more independently in the future."
Actually, that would probably move Castle to the right. He would say, "Wow, I lost a sizable percentage by being very independent. I should move to the right to regain my base."
And Castle is to fiscally conserned to switch parties.
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Actually, that would probably move Castle to the right. He would say, "Wow, I lost a sizable percentage by being very independent. I should move to the right to regain my base."
And Castle is to fiscally conserned to switch parties.
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